The ink is barely dry on the Health Care Bill, so it is no surprise to see the GOP hitting the streets with their “Repeal and Replace” program. How far will this carry them toward Nov 2010 mid-terms? Not far. First, watch what is going to happen to the lawsuits from the states. Higher courts will probably refuse to hear the cases. Regardless, once the first two are dismissed, the rest of the states will drop their suits.

Meanwhile the GOP campaign to repeal the HC bill will begin losing steam. This one-issue platform is simply not sustainable for the many months to November. Even Tea Partiers will begin to realize there is no apparent negative impact in their lives resulting from the bill.

President Obama’s next fight is Financial Reform. It will be much more difficult to campaign in favor of banks. Everyone hates banks. Difficult to defend them. Granting that the GOP and Right-Wing spokes-people will highlight arguments against Financial Reform, there is no way to engage the emotions in this issue to the same extent as HCR opposition. No death panels and murdered grandmas to strike fear and horror into the hearts of voters. Banking and finance are dry, boring topics, causing many eyes to glaze over.

That said, the GOP will use the fail-safe argument that regulations are creeping socialism. Though the number of Tea Party activists will dwindle, the stragglers will be loud and get lots of attention. By the summer recess, President Obama’s approval numbers will have been inching upward, and talk of repealing the health care reform bill will have mostly abated.

Look at the quandary the GOP is facing. They know that if they don’t get the Tea Party vote they have no hope of taking many, if any seats in Nov. However, catering to the Tea Party is also to continue endorsing violent and unruly behavior. And they have to walk such a fine line. People on edge are easy to rub the wrong way. Anything less than a 100% score on their litmus test incurs their wrath, as evidenced by the attacks on Stupak after he changed his vote in favor of HCR.

Additionally, if they continue to focus on the Repeal and Replace platform, the President’s other issues will be proportionately ignored. They have no choice but to keep step with the White House agenda to retain any modicum of credibility. Congress will have to debate new bills, and these will very quickly take over and dominate the news cycle.

The Republicans will not be able to keep their constituents focused on HCR while the rest of the country moves on to other pressing concerns. They act as though this is their ace-in-the-hole for November, but even they know it isn’t. They are doing what many losers do, they keep fighting to the end, then cry foul when they lose. Fine. They put up a good fight, even if it was dirty. But the game is over. A new strategy for the next round is unlikely, even though it doesn’t actually work. Good luck. We’ll see come November. I am unconvinced it is going to be a big of an upset as you want us all to think.

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